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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell should be 'calm, cool, and collected' around rate decision, says Julia CoronadoSubadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, Mike Remak, head of investments at Citi Global Wealth join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to share expectations from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Powell, Julia Coronado Subadra Rajappa, Julia Coronado, Mike Remak Organizations: Societe Generale, Citi Global Wealth, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket set-up going into earnings 'could not be better,' says Morgan Stanley's Andrew SlimmonAndrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to breakdown earnings outlooks, potential for Fed rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon Andrew Slimmon, Subadra, CNBC's Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Societe Generale
Fed meeting: Here's what to expect
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed meeting: Here's what to expectSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, Paul Christopher, Wells Fargo Investment Institute head of global market strategy, and Joe Lavorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss a timeline for Fed rate easing, U.S. economic health, and more.
Persons: Subadra, Paul Christopher, Joe Lavorgna Organizations: Societe Generale, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Nikko Securities America Locations: Wells Fargo
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
Late last year, Wall Street investors had bet that a rate cut in March was a near-certainty. Collectively, the policymakers likely feel little urgency to start cutting rates, a point that Chair Jerome Powell may stress in a news conference Wednesday. The unemployment rate, at 3.7%, isn't far above a half-century low. Yet some cracks have begun to appear in the job market and, if they worsen, could spur the Fed to cut rates more quickly. Though the European Central Bank could cut rates as soon as April, many economists think that might not happen until June.
Persons: Joe, Biden, Jerome Powell, they’re, , Subadra Rajappa Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Congress, Wall Street, Consumers, General Motors, United Auto Workers, Conference Board, European Central Bank Locations: U.S, United States
That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.
Persons: Price, , , Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with IG North's JJ Kinahan and Societe Generale’s Subadra RajappaIG North America CEO JJ Kinahan and Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rate strategy, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, upcoming retail earnings, and more.
Persons: North's JJ Kinahan, JJ Kinahan, Subadra Organizations: North, Societe Generale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, and Nancy TenglerPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Nancy Tengler, CEO & CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss fed Fed policy producing a gradual decline in inflation, the manufacturing recession spilling into services, the contrast between Fed and fiscal policy.
Persons: Paul McCulley, Subadra Rajappa, Nancy Tengler Paul McCulley, Subadra, Nancy Tengler Organizations: Societe Generale, Laffer, Investments, Fed
The central bank left interest rates unchanged from its September meeting, but its formal statement acknowledged that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In its last statement in September, it referred to the economy’s “solid” pace. But the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell made sure that the lack of action Wednesday does not mean that rates could be raised should incoming data show the economy is remaining strong. And the Fed says it remains committed to bringing annual inflation down to its target level of 2%. “As of Oct 31, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates above 4.5% through the end of 2024. But we think that interest rates could go much lower,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategy analyst at Russell Investments.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , We’re, ” Powell, “ We’re, It’s, , Neel Mukherjee, Subadra Rajappa, BeiChen Lin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, Societe Generale, Russell Investments Locations: TIAA, 10y
The interest rates on mortgages, credit cards and business loans have shot up in recent months, even as the Federal Reserve has left its key rate unchanged since July. The focal point has been on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which underpins many other borrowing costs. The 10-year yield has risen a full percentage point in less than three months, briefly pushing above 5 percent for the first time since 2007. Strong growth and stubborn inflationInitially, when the Fed first began to fight inflation, it was short-term market rates — like the yield on two-year notes — that rose sharply. Those increases closely tracked the increases in the Fed’s overnight lending rate, which rose from near zero to above 5 percent in about 18 months.
Persons: , Subadra Rajappa, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou'll see a break in yields once you see a 'meaningful slowdown' in the economy: Subadra RajappaAnastasia Amoroso, iCapital chief investment strategist, and Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rate strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of Israel-Hamas conflict, rising Treasury yields, and more.
Persons: Subadra, Anastasia Amoroso Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur base is U.S. will go into a recession by middle of 2024: Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss latest Treasury yield trajectory, the impact of higher rates on markets, where yields are headed, and more.
Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will return to the Fed's 2% target by next year, says Moody's Analytics' Mark ZandiJamie Cox, Harris Financial Group managing partner, Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, and Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss signals that indicate the Fed could be done with rate hikes this year, cues in the dot plot about the Fed's 2024 agenda, and fears of a potential government shutdown.
Persons: Zandi Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, Mark Zandi Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, and Mark ZandiJamie Cox, Harris Financial Group managing partner, Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, and Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss signals that indicate the Fed could be done with rate hikes this year, cues in the dot plot about the Fed's 2024 agenda, and fears of a potential government shutdown.
Persons: Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa, Mark Zandi Jamie Cox, Mark Zandi Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark ZandiEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Mark Zandi Emily Roland, John, Subadra, Mark Zandi Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management, Societe Generale, Federal Reserve
It was a subtly optimistic message that tempered otherwise hawkish projections that see the policy rate rising higher than market participants anticipated. In fact, investors in contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate see the central bank delivering only one quarter-percentage-point increase by the end of the year. They see about a 65% chance of a rate hike next month, up only slightly from before this week's meeting. A dovish decision, a hawkish statement, and very hawkish dots," wrote economists at the analytics firm of Larry Meyer, a former Fed governor. Fed officials at the median more than doubled their outlook for 2023 economic growth to 1%, from 0.4% in the March projections.
Persons: Fed's Powell, Jerome Powell, Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Larry Meyer, Howard Schneider, Bansari Mayur, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, Fed, Market, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Wednesday, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCredit crunch will help Fed's job of financial tightening, says Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the banking credit crunch tightening financial conditions, the potential for a gradual decline in 10-year Treasury yields, and concerns about a 2024 recession.
Persons: Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa Organizations: Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Harris Financial's Jamie Cox and Societe Generale's Subadra RajappaJamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, and Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the banking credit crunch tightening financial conditions, the potential for a gradual decline in 10-year Treasury yields, and concerns about a 2024 recession.
Persons: Harris, Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa Organizations: Societe, Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel full interview ahead of the Fed decisionHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere isn't a banking crisis, the problem is banking supervision, says Milken's William LeeHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox, Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Milken Institute's William Lee, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming Fed meeting, where another 25bps rate hike is expected.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Steven Wieting, Kathy Bostjancic and Subadra RajappaSteven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth Management Investments, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual, and Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the JOLTS report and more.
10-year Treasury yield falls ahead of Fed's rate hikes
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email10-year Treasury yield falls ahead of Fed's rate hikesSteven Wieting, chief investment strategist at Citi Global Wealth Management Investments, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Mutual, and Subadra Rajappa, head of US rates strategy at Societe Generale, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the JOLTS report and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBonds a very good hedge against volatility and risky assets, says Societe Generale's RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Kim Forrest, Bokeh Capital Partners CIO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the net impact of rising interest rates, Rajappa's thoughts on investing in the bond market and how Forrest views the investing landscape right now.
[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 21, 2022. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.13% while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.09%. "It's going to be a busy second half of the week with all the data points we're expecting. Oil prices climbed on hopes for a relaxation of China's strict COVID-19 controls, which had fueled demand concerns. Gold prices rose with help from the dollar's retreat and hopes for less aggressive U.S. rate hikes going forward.
Fed terminal rate to reach just under 5%, said bond strategists
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
With scant evidence of sustained cooling in inflation, global central banks are unlikely to deviate yet from their current tightening paths. If any, the bias was for them to take interest rates higher or keep them at elevated levels for longer. He also said the "ultimate level" of the central bank's benchmark policy rate was likely to be higher than previously estimated. The median forecast from over 30 bond strategists who answered an additional question in the Nov. 4-9 poll put the terminal fed funds rate at 4.75%-5.00%, with one forecast as high as 5.50%-5.75%. A strong 74% majority, 23 of 31, expected the terminal rate to be reached by end-Q1 2023.
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